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This afternoon and evening (Tuesday) may produce some NE wind on western/central Lake Ontario. Keep an eye on the meters at Olcott and Rochester.
Wednesday looks solid. More questions than answers for Thursday.
A small low pressure system is developing over the plains today. It moves eastward, and lands right on Buffalo Wednesday. With it comes South wind and 8+mbar of pressure gradient from the west end of Lake Erie to the east end of Lake Ontario, thanks to the high pressure to our east. That’s a steep gradient over our 2 lakes. The greatest wind magnitude appears to be over the Finger Lakes (20-30mph) on Wednesday from mid-morning through evening. You may be able to catch some lighter south wind in Canada on the east end of Lake Erie as well. Beware that a few showers may develop across the region. Air temps are forecast to be around 80 degrees, so bubbling should not be a huge issue as Lake surface temps are nearing 70 degrees, but it may be a minor factor so consider staying at your riding location through the evening as air temps cool if you think there is bubbling occurring in the afternoon.
On Thursday morning a low pressure system near Hudson Bay overpowers the smaller low pressure over Buffalo and extends a fairly deep trough over NY state. This gives us another decent pressure gradient and WSW wind . The question here, however, is what the magnitude of wind will be. Most of the models are showing 15-20mph, but I’m optimistic for a little more wind because I think the gradient may tighten up in the afternoon Thursday. It’s too far away to be sure, but look for some WSW wind on eastern Lake Erie Thursday, and possibly decent west wind on central Lake Ontario. -
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